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Research on New Mexico’s universal child care program found increased labor-force participation, employment and work hours among lower-income mothers. Higher-income mothers reduced those measures, a pattern the researcher says may reflect choices such as studying or spending more time with children. The study does not yet establish the program’s long-term effects or whether it will pay for itself.
A study of New Mexico’s universal, free child care program found that lower-income mothers increased their employment and work hours after the policy took effect, while higher-income mothers reduced them. The findings, reported by The 74 and based on research by Arizona State University professor Chris Herbst, offer an early look at how the nation’s first statewide universal child care program may affect parents’ work.
Herbst compared mothers’ labor outcomes in New Mexico before and after the program began with outcomes for mothers elsewhere. His analysis used monthly U.S. Census Bureau data collected from May 2019 through August 2026. The reported results vary substantially by income group, rather than showing a single statewide pattern in mothers’ work.
Among lower-income mothers, labor-force participation and employment each rose by 18% after the policy, according to the study. Full-time employment increased by 23%, and weekly work hours rose by 15%. Herbst said the results point to child care costs having been a barrier to paid work for some families before the program.
For higher-income mothers, the study found an 8% decline in labor-force participation, a 17% decline in full-time work and a 10% drop in weekly hours. Herbst offered two possible explanations: some parents may have cut back to spend more time at home, while others may have reduced work to attend school. Those explanations are possibilities, not outcomes the figures establish.
How Free Care Shifts Parents’ Choices
The findings suggest that access to child care can affect whether parents are able to take paid jobs, how much they work and how they divide time between work, education and family. For lower-income mothers, the reported employment gains indicate that removing the cost of care may open up work that was previously unaffordable relative to available wages.
The reductions among higher-income mothers complicate any simple measure of success based only on whether more parents enter the workforce. Herbst said the program may give families more flexibility, including the ability to pursue education or spend additional time raising children. The study reports work patterns; it does not show which choices individual families made or measure whether those choices improved household well-being.
Whether the employment changes ultimately offset program costs is also unsettled. Herbst said it is too early to know if New Mexico’s policy will pay for itself through additional tax revenue, as research on Quebec’s subsidized child care program found happened there. He described New Mexico’s early results as promising, not conclusive.
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A Rare U.S. Policy Test
New Mexico became the first state in the country to enact a universal child care program, according to the source report. That makes the policy an unusual opportunity to study universal child care in a U.S. setting. Earlier research has largely examined programs in other countries, including Quebec and Norway.
Herbst has also studied the Lanham Act, a federal program established during World War II that supported child care centers so women could work. He said New Mexico did not participate in that program. His research found that greater spending on Lanham Act centers was associated with increases in women’s employment and hours worked. The historical findings provide context, but they do not directly establish what New Mexico’s current program will do.
The new analysis arrives early in the policy’s life. The employment figures capture changes over the study period, but longer-term effects on families, children and public finances may take more time to assess.
“Disadvantaged families can now afford to work.”
— Chris Herbst, as quoted by The 74
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Long-Term Effects Still Unmeasured
The early study does not determine why higher-income mothers reduced their work, whether families’ incomes rose overall, or how many parents pursued school or spent more time at home. Those are explanations Herbst raised, not confirmed reasons established by the reported data.
It is also too soon to know whether the program will generate enough added tax revenue to offset its costs. The source report does not provide a full accounting of the program’s spending, the number of families using it, or the size of any fiscal effects. Effects on children’s development and later education or earnings remain unmeasured in this analysis and would take longer to assess.
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Further Evidence Will Take Time
Researchers will need more time and additional data to test whether the early work changes persist and to assess the policy’s effects on household finances, public budgets and children. Herbst described New Mexico as an important U.S. case for studying universal child care, but the current results are an early assessment rather than a final verdict.
Future analysis could clarify whether families’ work and education choices change over time and whether children show later differences in educational outcomes. For now, the confirmed finding is that reported work measures moved in opposite directions for lower- and higher-income mothers after the program began; the reasons and longer-term consequences remain open questions.
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Key Questions
What did the New Mexico child care study find?
The study found that lower-income mothers’ labor-force participation and employment each rose by 18%, full-time employment increased by 23%, and weekly work hours rose by 15%. For higher-income mothers, those measures declined by 8%, 17% and 10%, respectively.
Who conducted the research?
The analysis was conducted by Chris Herbst, an Arizona State University professor who studies child care policy. The 74 reported the findings.
Why did work measures decline among higher-income mothers?
The study does not establish a reason. Herbst suggested some parents may have chosen to spend more time at home or attend school while working less.
Has New Mexico’s program paid for itself?
That is not known. Herbst said it is too early to determine whether additional employment and tax revenue will offset the program’s costs.
What effects on children have been established?
This study does not establish effects on children’s development or long-term outcomes. Those effects may require years of follow-up data to evaluate.
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